Bitcoin's Path to $138K: Macro Trends Signal Significant Upside

Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to reach as high as $138,000 within the next three months, according to new research. This optimistic forecast is based on historical data correlating Bitcoin's performance with the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, despite current unusual macroeconomic conditions and an unprecedented correlation with the US dollar.

Bitcoin's Bullish Outlook

Network economist Timothy Peterson's analysis suggests a significant upside for Bitcoin. His research indicates a potential range of $75,000 to $138,000 for BTC/USD within 90 days.

• Historical Precedent: Peterson's findings are rooted in 38 instances since 2010 where the US High Yield Index Effective Yield exceeded 8%. In these cases, Bitcoin was up 71% of the time three months later, with a median gain of +31%.

• Target Gains: To hit the $138,000 mark, Bitcoin would need to achieve a 62% gain within the three-month period.

Decoupling from the US Dollar

Peterson also addressed the unusual positive correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY), which he expects to flip negative.

• Unprecedented Correlation: The current positive correlation between BTC and DXY is described as unprecedented, driven by shared macro stressors such as tightening liquidity, high real rates, and global risk aversion.

• Future Decoupling: Peterson predicts that Bitcoin will decouple from the DXY and rise when real yields drop and liquidity returns to the market.

• DXY Performance: The DXY has remained below the 100 mark, reflecting some of its lowest levels in the past three years, which could eventually benefit Bitcoin as it has in previous bull runs.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin could reach $138,000 within three months, with a floor of $75,000.

• The forecast is based on historical correlation with the US High Yield Index Effective Yield.

• An unusual positive correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) is expected to reverse.

• Bitcoin's rise is anticipated when real yields decrease and market liquidity improves.

Sources

• Bitcoin can reach $138K in 3 months as macro odds see BTC price upside, Cointelegraph.